Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM
This will be a relatively quiet week
for the Nigerian economy data-wise with the latest inflation figures under the
spotlight.
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Given how the Central Bank of Nigeria
has stated that inflation should dip below 9% before an interest rate cut could
be considered, there will be a stronger focus on the pending inflation report
for September ahead of the next CBN meeting in November.
Repeated signs of easing inflationary
pressures in Nigeria should reinforce market expectations over the central bank
cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. While domestic data and
developments at home will continue influencing the Naira and local stocks,
global themes impacting investor confidence should play a role in where the
Naira concludes this week.
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Outside of Nigeria, the positive
outcome to US-China trade talks last Friday will remain a major talking point
across financial markets in the week ahead. Both sides have taken a massive
step towards a partial trade deal that could be signed in November, which sees
China increase the purchase of American agricultural products and the
previously threatened tariff hike on October 15 delayed.
While this is not considered a major
breakthrough, it does offer some light at the end of the long trade war tunnel
– ultimately supporting global risk appetite.
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It will certainly be another
action-packed week for financial markets with data from major economies and
Brexit developments in focus. The market mood still remains extremely sensitive
to US-China trade news and this will most likely influence global stocks,
emerging markets and safe-haven assets. In the United Kingdom, the latest
inflation figures, retail sales and speech from Bank of England Governor Mark
Carney should offer a short-term distraction away from Brexit.
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Although a Fed rate cut this month is
already heavily priced in, the US retail sales report could impact rate cut
speculations beyond October.
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