Tuesday, 15 October 2019

NIGERIA – WEEK AHEAD

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Lukman Otunuga,
Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

This will be a relatively quiet week for the Nigerian economy data-wise with the latest inflation figures under the spotlight.

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Given how the Central Bank of Nigeria has stated that inflation should dip below 9% before an interest rate cut could be considered, there will be a stronger focus on the pending inflation report for September ahead of the next CBN meeting in November.

Repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in Nigeria should reinforce market expectations over the central bank cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. While domestic data and developments at home will continue influencing the Naira and local stocks, global themes impacting investor confidence should play a role in where the Naira concludes this week.

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Outside of Nigeria, the positive outcome to US-China trade talks last Friday will remain a major talking point across financial markets in the week ahead. Both sides have taken a massive step towards a partial trade deal that could be signed in November, which sees China increase the purchase of American agricultural products and the previously threatened tariff hike on October 15 delayed.

While this is not considered a major breakthrough, it does offer some light at the end of the long trade war tunnel – ultimately supporting global risk appetite.

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It will certainly be another action-packed week for financial markets with data from major economies and Brexit developments in focus. The market mood still remains extremely sensitive to US-China trade news and this will most likely influence global stocks, emerging markets and safe-haven assets. In the United Kingdom, the latest inflation figures, retail sales and speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney should offer a short-term distraction away from Brexit.

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Although a Fed rate cut this month is already heavily priced in, the US retail sales report could impact rate cut speculations beyond October.

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