Market Analyst at FXTM
Most Asian stocks and currencies are
gaining as investors grow increasingly hopeful that the US and China can reach
a trade deal on Friday. There’s a clear risk-on mood in the markets at the
expense of safe haven assets, as Gold trades below $1500, yields on 10-year US
Treasuries breach 1.65 percent, and USDJPY breaks above the psychological 108
level for the first time since October 1.
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Investors are ready to celebrate any
form of a US-China trade deal, even an interim one, having endured
trade-related volatility since May. The amount of market fanfare will
correspond with the contents of the actual deal, assuming one will be announced
later today. Investors are in sore need of a solid pick-me-up beyond mere
whispers of a trade pact, and a formal agreement is likely to sustain risk
sentiment for the rest of 2019.
Still, investors are cognizant that a
trade pact that marks a pause in tariff hikes without rolling back any of the
tariffs imposed since last year would not solve all of the global economy’s
existing problems.
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At the other end of market
expectations, failure to come to any agreement this week may have dire
consequences for the global economy. Keep in mind that the US administration
had threatened to raise existing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods
by 5 percentage points to 30 percent on Tuesday, with potentially more tariffs
to follow in December.
Whiffs of Brexit deal send Pound on steepest climb in seven months
Risk sentiment is also being boosted by
reports of another crucial deal becoming likelier across the Atlantic.
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UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and
Irish premier Leo Varadkar said they have identified a “pathway” towards a
Brexit deal. Following the news, GBPUSD breached the 1.245 mark for the first
time since September 25 after seeing its biggest one-day jump in seven months,
before moderating slightly to converge around its 100-day moving average.
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With three weeks remaining before the
existing October 31 deadline, markets can expect more twists and turns in the
Brexit saga, as has been the case since 2016. This uncertainty also means that
the Pound will be highly volatile as the UK endeavours to find its way out of
the European Union. The 1.20 level remains the floor supporting Sterling,
unless a no-deal Brexit becomes an absolute certainty.
US-China trade deal to act as Brent boost
Brent futures could carve out a path
back towards $64/bbl in the event that a US-China trade deal is announced going
into the weekend. Despite Brent futures now breaking above the psychological
$60/bbl level following news of an Iranian tanker catching fire, investors’
focus remains primarily on the outcome of the trade negotiations in Washington.
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Oil markets have been weighed down by
demand-side uncertainties, as heightened tariffs have choked global trade. Even
in the event of a trade truce, the tariffs that remain in place however will
limit Oil’s upside, barring any tightening in global supplies. This could come
via a spike in geopolitical tensions involving major Oil producers or a tighter
supply-cuts programme by OPEC+.
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