Lukman Otunuga,
FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
Any remaining hopes over the Central
Bank of Nigeria cutting interest rates in the near term have been quashed by
signs of rising inflationary pressures.
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Nigeria’s inflation rate jumped to a
17-month high at 11.6% in October, from the 11.24% seen in September thanks to
rising food prices. The CBN is unlikely to cut interest rates from 13.5% this
month due to the uptick in inflation and this sentiment is likely to roll over
into 2020. Although one of the central bank's objectives is to achieve price
stability, an interest rate cut has the potential to stimulate consumption
which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP. Given how the Federal Reserve has
signalled a pause on further rate cuts, this may complicate the CBN’s efforts
to ease monetary policy in 2020.
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The next major economic release from
the Nigerian economy will be the third-quarter GDP figures scheduled for
release on Monday 25th of November. Markets are predicting growth to expand 2%
during Q3. Should the report disappoint, the CBN could be forced to take action
despite the threat of rising inflation.
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