This will be a busy week for the
Nigerian economy as the nation publishes updates its latest current account
balance for Q3 and central bank interest rate decision for November.
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The nation recorded a current account
deficit of $2.9 billion during the second quarter of 2019. While a deficit is
not necessarily bad, it does suggest that a country’s liabilities exceed its
foreign assets. Given how Nigeria imports more than it exports, there is a risk
of the nation experiencing another deficit in Q3 – an outcome that could prompt
foreign investors to call for a Naira devaluation.
There will be a strong focus on the
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interest rate decision on Tuesday. Given how
inflationary pressures are making an unwelcome return, the CBN may think twice
before cutting interest rates from 13.5%. Should the CBN governor adopt a
cautious tone and express concerns over the Nigerian economy, investors may
re-evaluate the possibility of monetary policy easing during the first half of
2020.
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Outside of Nigeria, market sentiment is
set to be dictated by ongoing US-China trade developments and economic data
from the largest economy in the world. The US Q3 GDP revision and consumer
confidence report should offer insight into the health of the US economy. If
the Dollar finds support from encouraging domestic fundamentals, emerging
market currencies including the Naira are likely to feel the heat.
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