Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM.
There was a collective sigh of relief
across the Nigerian economy in November after official reports confirmed that
economic growth accelerated to 2.3% during the third quarter of 2019. Given how
this rate of growth represents the second-highest quarterly rate witnessed
since 2016, Nigeria is certainly displaying a measure of resilience against
domestic and external headwinds.
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Looking deeper into the GDP report,
growth was mainly driven by strengthening momentum in the non-oil sector of the
economy which highlighted Nigeria’s mission to diversify away from oil
reliance. The non-oil sector of the economy expanded 1.85% annually compared to
the 1.6% witnessed during the second half of 2019. However, growth in the oil
sector also played a role, growing 6.5% over the same period last year.
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Nigeria recorded an increase in its oil
production to 2.04 million barrels a day in Q3 which was above the OPEC limit
of 1.774 million barrels a day. If the nation is forced to comply with the
quota during the final quarter of 2019 and early parts of 2020, this could hit
economic growth. Although the government remains on a quest to diversify its
revenue sources, crude oil still accounts for 90% of export earnings and over
70% of government revenues.
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While economic activity is projected to
shift into higher gear in 2020 as the new minimum wage hike stimulates
consumption which accounts for 80% of GDP, the nation still remains exposed to
heightened global risks. Given how the projected economic growth of 2.3% is
below the 2.6% population growth, the GDP per capita risks declining further.
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US-China trade developments will most
certainly impact Nigeria’s economy in the medium to longer term. While trade
tensions continue to weigh on emerging markets, developing economies who have
close trade ties with China remain in the direct firing line. With total trade
between China and Nigeria over $10 billion in 2018, and averaging $3 billion
during the first and second quarter of 2019, trade developments are poised to
impact Nigeria's outlook.
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Rising inflationary pressures and
accelerating economic growth in Q3 have prevented the Central Bank of Nigeria
from cutting interest rates from 13.5%. However, if economic conditions
deteriorate and inflationary pressures moderate, the central bank could still
pull the trigger on lower rates in 2020. Key themes seen influencing the
Nigerian economy for the rest of 2019 will revolve around the passing of the
2020 budget in December, US-China trade developments, the Dollar’s valuation
and most importantly oil prices.
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