Data from the National Bureau of
Statistics have shown that within a three-year period covering December 2017 to
December 2020, Nigeria generated a total sum of N6.5tn from non-oil exports.
This sum is N5.8tn lower than its
N12.3tn ($30bn) target set by the Federal Government under its zero-oil plan. In
the fourth quarter 2016, the Nigerian Export
Promotion Council (NEPC) conceived the Zero Oil Plan (a core component of
the Federal Government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan) to increase the
contribution of non-oil exports to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product by 20 per
cent.
According to the NEPC 2016 annual
report, the focus of the plan is to ‘generate at least a minimum of 40 – 50 per
cent of Nigeria earnings from non-oil export’. Among other things, the report
disclosed that the plan was expected to grow non-oil foreign exchange to $30bn
by 2020.
The $30bn was to be generated
from 11 strategic export products – such as petrochemicals, palm oil, cocoa,
soybeans, rubber – with high financial value to replace oil. The $30bn target
when converted to naira using the current official exchange rate of N411/$
equals N12.3tn.
The report read, “The Nigerian Export Promotion Council launched the Zero Oil
Plan, a medium and long term strategy aimed at diversifying the economy from
oil. Zero Oil Plan has become a key component of the Economic Recovery and
Growth Plan.
“The focus is to
generate at least a minimum of 40 – 50 per cent of Nigeria earnings from
non-oil export. The plan was presented to different states, development
partners and donor agencies and has been widely accepted. The overall targets
set for the zero oil plan include: to grow non-oil foreign exchange from $2.7bn
base to $30bn by 2020.”
A breakdown of non-oil exports
during the review period shows that in 2017, non-oil exports contributed
N629.9bn or 4.6 per cent of the total export of N13.6tn. Out of the total
export of N18.5tn recorded in 2018, only N1.9tn was generated from the export
of non-oil products.
In 2019, non-oil exports
accounted for N2.5tn of total export of N19.2tn recorded at the end of the
year. For 2020, Nigeria generated N1.4tn from non-oil exports, which
constituted only 11.4 per cent of its N12.5tn worth of export.
During the period under review,
the Federal Government generated a total sum of N63.79tn from exports, out of
which N6.5tn accrued from non-oil exports while N50.8tn was generated from
exporting crude oil.
Consequently, crude oil remains
the mainstay of the economy as it accounts for the largest share of total
exports despite efforts of the Federal Government to reduce the country’s
dependence on the product.
Speaking on the development, a
financial expert and professor of economics at the Olabisi Onabanjo University,
Ogun State, Professor Sheriffdeen Tella,
emphasised the need for the government to diversify the economy from oil and
focus on boosting non-oil trade. He added that in a few years’ time, oil might
not be as profitable as it is currently.
Tella said, “There are
alternatives to oil that are being developed. Many vehicles would not be
running on oil. They may likely switch to gas and other alternatives. Also, it
means some industries would not be running on oil very soon. Alternatives are
developed every day, and after some time, there would be perfection. In the next 10 to 15 years, oil may not be a
serious matter anymore.
“Oil is going down, and we should
be looking for alternatives. If we can invest what we have in other sectors, we
will not be caught unawares. Our problem is that once there is a problem with
oil, we start looking for alternatives. Once the oil starts selling well, we forget
that we have a problem. That has been our problem.”
Tella attributed the negative
difference between actual non-oil export and the NEPC projection to neglect of
the non-oil sector.
“The reason for the low non-oil export is
abandonment. Those sectors have been abandoned because of the money coming from
oil. We are not serious about other sectors yet. The government seems to be
more interested in easy oil money. Yet, we are not investing this money in the
right places,” he said.
(Punch)
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