Tuesday, 4 June 2019

NIGERIA WEEK AHEAD: ECB MEETING, US JOBS REPORT AND OIL IN FOCUS

Lukman Otunuga,
FXTM Research Analyst

It will be another busy week for financial markets as investors grapple with trade tensions, Brexit, depressed oil prices and concerns over slowing global growth. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html

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The week kicks off with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May which is projected to hit 53.0. Appetite for the Dollar is likely to take another hit if the PMI figures fail to meet market expectations. Investors will be paying very close attention to Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday for fresh insight into the Fed’s monetary policy path. 

Investors will be paying very close attention towards Powell’s tone, given how concerns are rising over trade tensions potentially impacting the US economy. The biggest event risks this week will be the European Central Bank meeting and US jobs report on Friday. The Dollar could end up depreciating further if the US jobs report disappoints and fuels speculation over the Fed cutting interest rates this year. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html Naturally, this will be good news for emerging market currencies with the Naira falling into the category.

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The economic calendar for Nigeria will be relatively light this week with the Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI scheduled for release on Thursday. Although the economic docket is light, external factors in the form of trade tensions, the Dollar and most importantly oil prices will impact sentiment towards the nation.

Fellow Nigerians, are you aware that our crude oil will soon become useless? Yes, it will, in no distant time, become valueless owing to the fact that the countries that rely on it as their only source of energy are developing more affordable alternative sources of energy. When this finally happens, what will we do? How are we currently preparing for this imminent economic doom? Which other sector will continue to stabilize our economy? Nigerians, the only solution is developing the agricultural sector. In fact, this is the only solution. Very soon, the major source of revenue will become agriculture and agro-exports. How are you positioning yourself to play big in agro-export business? Why don’t you get a practical manual that explains the stages of export trade from processing and packaging of commodities to receipt of payment by the foreign buyers? Yes, arm yourself with the contemporary trends in export trade. This manual explains export operations, export management, export documentations and methods of payment in export trade? Yes, it is a contemporary step-by-step guide to export trade. It tells all the contemporary dynamics in export trade. To get it, click on this link: http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html

Falling oil prices are set to place the Nigerian economy in a difficult position. It is widely known that Nigeria relies heavily on crude oil exports which account for over 90% of exports earnings and over 70% of government revenues. http://www.tectono-business.com/2016/02/contemporary-step-by-step-guide-to.html A sharp decline in oil prices could threaten Nigeria’s economic recovery while disrupting exchange rate stability. The potential decline in foreign exchange reserves from lower oil is likely to weaken the Naira consequently translating to rising inflationary pressures. http://www.tectono-business.com/2018/01/is-your-car-battered-and-disfigured.html Consumers and businesses will feel the pain as inflationary pressures mount, while the drop in foreign reserves may complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to defend the Naira. For Nigeria to insulate itself against such external risks, there needs to be a greater push on diversifying away from oil reliance to other sustainable sources of economic growth with Agriculture being one of several solutions.

Elsewhere, Gold is glittering as geopolitical risk factors and concerns over slowing global growth accelerate the flight to safety. http://www.tectono-business.com/2015/07/tectono-business-review-in-conjunction_21.html This precious metal has turned bullish on the daily timeframe as is positioned to push higher should $1300 prove to be reliable support. A vulnerable Dollar should inject bulls with enough inspiration to push Gold towards $1324 in the short to medium term.

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