Senior Research Analyst
at FXTM
While the central banks across the
world are easing monetary policy in the face of decelerating global growth and
trade uncertainty, the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 13.5% in September.
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Given how economic growth remains
sluggish and inflation has eased to a 43-month low in August at 11.02%, the
conditions are ripe for the CBN to turn on the stimulus taps to float the
Nigerian economy. Investors just need to look at the disappointing growth in
domestic product for the second quarter of 2019 which highlights how the nation
remains exposed to both domestic and external risks.
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While the prospects of rising oil
prices amid geopolitical tensions could lend some support to the nation, the
short-term benefits will be overshadowed by core themes weighing on the nation.
Should trade disputes, volatile oil prices and unfavorable global conditions
continue exposing Nigeria to downside shocks,
the CBN could be forced to turn on the monetary policy life support to
prevent the economy from flatlining.
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Today, the CBN has decided to miss the
fast-moving global easing train in order to monitor domestic and global
developments. However, it may decide to jump aboard at a later stop with better
front row seats.
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