Sunday, 22 September 2019

HOT TOPIC COMMENT ON CBN INTEREST RATES

Lukman Otunuga,
Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

While the central banks across the world are easing monetary policy in the face of decelerating global growth and trade uncertainty, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 13.5% in September.

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Given how economic growth remains sluggish and inflation has eased to a 43-month low in August at 11.02%, the conditions are ripe for the CBN to turn on the stimulus taps to float the Nigerian economy. Investors just need to look at the disappointing growth in domestic product for the second quarter of 2019 which highlights how the nation remains exposed to both domestic and external risks.

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While the prospects of rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions could lend some support to the nation, the short-term benefits will be overshadowed by core themes weighing on the nation. Should trade disputes, volatile oil prices and unfavorable global conditions continue exposing Nigeria to downside shocks,  the CBN could be forced to turn on the monetary policy life support to prevent the economy from flatlining.

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Today, the CBN has decided to miss the fast-moving global easing train in order to monitor domestic and global developments. However, it may decide to jump aboard at a later stop with better front row seats.

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