The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has forecasted
a 3.1 per cent growth in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year, from
the expected 3.0 per cent by the end of this year.
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In its September 2019 Monthly Oil
Market Report (MOMR), it said after two years of relatively high growth levels,
global GDP growth was forecast to stabilise at 3.0 per cent this year and to
rise to 3.1 per cent next year.
According to the report, the projection
constitutes sound growth with ongoing solid oil demand, given the many
uncertainties that derive mainly from the political arena.
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It noted that ongoing trade dispute
between the United States (U.S.) and China, Brexit and a slow-down in Germany
loom large in the European Union (EU), the sovereign debt crisis in Argentina
is dampening Latin American growth, and ongoing structural challenges in India
are leading the economy to significantly lower output.
However, OPEC said upside to the
current forecast could come from an agreement on trade-related issues between
the U.S. and its trading partners considering that trade was a substantial
support factor for above-average global growth in the past two years.
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Furthermore, a soft Brexit, toning down
of geo-political tensions and stabilisation in those economies that face fiscal
challenges could also lift growth to a higher level.
“An important support factor
so far this year has been the relatively stable oil market, which continues to
benefit from the ongoing efforts under the OPEC-non-OPEC Declaration of
Cooperation (DoC).
“This has not only been
beneficial to oil producing economies, including major economies of the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) such as the U.S.
and Canada, but also to consumer nations as it provides better visibility in
the oil market.
“Within the OECD, the U.S.
economy continues to slow down after last year’s support from the large fiscal
stimulus measures. Consequently, growth is forecast at 2.3 per cent in 2019,
followed by growth of 1.9 per cent in 2020.
“In the Euro-zone, economic
challenges in Germany, political uncertainties in selective countries and
Brexit are leading to lower growth, which is forecast at 1.2 per cent for 2019
and 1.1 per cent in 2020,” the
report said.
Meanwhile, Japan’s growth, the report
said, is forecast as holding up relatively well in 2019 at 0.9 per cent. With
the government intending to increase the sales tax in fourth quarter of 2019
and the economy continuing to be constrained by very low unemployment and high
utilisation rates in the industrial sector, growth is forecast at 0.3 per cent
in 2020.
“Monetary policies by the G4
central banks, which include Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, have supported growth.
The Fed is forecast to lower interest rates at least one more time this year.
The ECB may also expand its monetary supply further.
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