Monday, 9 September 2019

NIGERIA - WEEK AHEAD

Lukman Otunuga
FXTM Senior Research Analyst

Global sentiment and investor confidence will be influenced by US-China trade developments and central bank meetings in the week ahead.

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Market optimism over the two largest economies in the world holding trade talks in October should support risk sentiment and boost appetite for riskier assets such as equities and emerging market currencies.

In Nigeria, market players will direct their focus towards the trade balance for the second quarter of 2019. Given how oil prices have been under pressure over the past few months, the impact will be reflected in the trade balance as lower oil prices impact exports.

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Oil has scope to push higher towards $58.00 in the week ahead as easing trade tensions soothe global growth concerns and brighten Oil’s demand outlook. The renewed risk appetite should also support Oil’s upside gains in the short to medium term.

However, with global sentiment still fragile the commodity is susceptible to downside losses. Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Oil remains in a wide range on the daily charts. The upside momentum should open doors towards $58.00. A breakout above this resistance level could spark an incline higher towards $60.00.z

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Outside of Nigeria, the Brexit showdown in Parliament, European Central Bank policy meeting and key economic data from major economies will keep investors on their toes in the week ahead. Buying sentiment towards the Pound may be dealt another blow on Monday if UK GDP data for July disappoints by printing below the 0.8% forecast.

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On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to join the global easing bandwagon by cutting deposit rates for the first time since March 2016. The trading week could end with a bang depending on how markets react to the latest US retail sales report on Friday.

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