FXTM Senior Research
Analyst
A positive vibe is sweeping across
financial markets this morning as renewed hopes for progress in US-China trade
negotiations uplift global sentiment and boost investor confidence.
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News that Beijing and Washington
officials will be holding high level trade talks in early October is certainly
raising hopes over the two largest economies in the world finding a middle
ground on trade. This optimism is being reflected in Asian markets on Friday
with regional shares set to conclude the week on a positive note.
Although the risk-on mood induced by
renewed trade hopes will be welcomed by global equity markets in the near term,
gains are set to be limited by investor skepticism down the line. Lessons from
the past have certainly illustrated the unpredictability of the Trump
administration when it comes to trade developments. While trade negotiations
are far better than none at all, it would be unwise to be unprepared for
another disappointment given the history of past negotiations.
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US jobs report to test Fed cut expectations
Friday’s major risk event and potential
market shaker will be the US non-farm payroll report for August which will
influence expectations over how deep the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates next.
Overall, data from the United States
has painted a mixed picture this week with the US manufacturing PMI contracting
for the first time in three years to 49.1% in August. However, US private
payrolls increased in August at their fastest pace in four months at 195k while
the US services industry rebounded last month as private employers boosted
hiring.
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The non-farm payroll report for August
is projected to show an increase of 160k jobs created and the unemployment rate
holding steady at 3.7%. Should the US jobs report meet or exceed market
forecasts, this should cool speculation over deep Fed rate cuts, ultimately
supporting the Dollar.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
It has not been the best of trading
weeks for Gold which suffered its biggest daily loss in almost three years
yesterday, shedding over $40 in valuation as risk-on repelled investors from
safe haven assets and boosted appetite for riskier investments.
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While the precious metal is positioned
to weaken further in the near term amid the improving market sentiment, the
downside will be limited by core market themes. For as long as global growth
concerns, uncertainty over trade and low interest rates across the globe remain
key market themes, the outlook for Gold remains bright and encouraging. Where
the precious metal concludes this week will be influenced by the US jobs data
released on Friday afternoon. A solid jobs reports could hurt Gold bulls as
investors re-evaluate how deep the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates
beyond September.
Focusing on the technical picture, Gold
is under pressure on the daily charts. Sustained weakness below $1525 should
encourage a decline towards $1500 in the near term.
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