Chief Market Strategist,
FXTM
The
good news is economies across the globe are starting to reopen, suggesting that
some activity will begin to recover compared to the full lockdown experienced
in April. However, will there be a price to be paid for the easing of
restrictions?
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Hopefully
not, but when looking at how investors traded the VIX last week they seem to be
expecting some turbulence ahead. Often referred to as the fear gauge, the index
climbed 14% last week to settle around 32 in the biggest upside move since late
March. Futures on the index also moved higher with July contracts rising 6.5%
and closing the week at 32.6.
In his
latest appearance, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, has said the economy could recover steadily through
the second half of the year under the condition that there is no second wave of
the coronavirus. But when listening to the head of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr.
Anthony Fauci, and other experts, many are warning that a second wave is
inevitable if US states ease restrictions too quickly. According to Powell,
there needs to be a vaccine for the economy to fully recover and that may be
more than a year away.
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Trying
to say with a high degree of confidence where the markets will be heading in
the upcoming weeks is mission impossible. The current state of the economy is
already priced in with the existing monetary and fiscal measures taken. So do
not expect to see big moves with each economic data release. I think it is
better to monitor the rate of growth in Covid-19 infections as this might
provide a better indicator for market moves.
The
other risk factor investors need to keep an eye on is US-China tensions. After
US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo,
last week blamed China for covering up the origins of the virus, White House
trade advisor, Peter Navarro, is now
accusing China of using travelers to seed the virus in Milan and New York.
Whether Friday’s move to block global chip supplies to blacklisted telecom
company Huawei will restart another tit-for-tat tariff war remains to be seen,
but the odds are now increasing. At this stage that’s the last thing investors
want to see.
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