Market Analyst at FXTM
Markets
are taking stock of their exposure to risk while mulling the protracted and
arduous recovery that awaits the global economy. Asian stocks and US equity
futures erased earlier losses and are set to enter the last trading day of the
week on a slightly positive note, although most Asian currencies are currently
weaker against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.
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China,
the first major economy to emerge from the Covid-19 induced lockdown, posted a
better-than-expected 3.9 percent expansion in April’s industrial production
data. But its retail sales disappointed market estimates, while fixed-asset and
property investments still showed year-on-year contractions. The surveyed
jobless rate also increased to six percent in April, 10 basis points higher
than the month prior.
China
is widely seen as the bellwether for navigating a post-lockdown world. Despite
its supply-side forces faring better at present compared to demand-side
indicators, it’s evident that China is only managing to tip-toe out of the
lockdown gates as opposed to racing out of the blocks, even if the data does
point to signs of recovery. However, the increasingly diversified economy,
coupled with expectations for more stimulus measures, should help buffer the
country’s growth momentum over what is set to be a gradual, yet highly
uncertain journey ahead.
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There
remains the risk of a negtive feedback loop into the Chinese economy from the
crippled demand in major Western economies, with the US alone accounting for
almost 17 percent of China’s exports in 2019. Global investors will also be
gauging the US economic data due later today, including its April retail sales
and industrial production prints. As the US weekly jobless claims continue to
number in the millions, the hobbled demand in some of China’s biggest markets
is set to dampen its growth for the year.
Overall,
the data out of the two largest economies should quell any notion of a V-shaped
recovery for the rest of the world, much to the chagrin of stock market bulls.
The coming months remain paved with downside risks and the threat of chilling
US-China relations amid this global pandemic will only further inhibit global
risk appetite.
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Gold set for four
straight days of gains
The
2.98 million US jobless claims that were unveiled on Thursday, albeit with a
discrepancy in Connecticut’s data, gave investors more reasons to push Gold
higher. At the time of writing, Bullion is trading at the $1730 mark for the
first time in three weeks.
The
sparse evidence of a solid post-lockdown recovery is leaving less room in
investor’s portfolios for risk-on assets and more desire for safe havens such
as Gold. The precious metals’ ETFs have added to their holdings for 15
consecutive days, bringing the total to a 12-month high of nearly 100 million
ounces, according to Bloomberg data
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Gold’s
path of least resistance remains to the upside, so hitting the $1800 handle is
just a matter of time. A host of potential positive catalysts for Bullion
remain in the offing, including evidence of a more protracted return to global
economic normality, a spike in US-China trade tensions and even the heightened
perception of negative interest rates in the US. In the interim, the broader
market sentiment should ensure that Gold remains in vogue.
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