The
GDP figure for Q1 2020 is the slowest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2018.
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) grew
by 1.87 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, according to the
latest GDP report released today by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The GDP figure for Q1 2020 is the slowest
quarterly growth rate since Q4 2018, when the economy grew at its fastest rate
following the 2016 recession.
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According
to the NBS, the GDP performance was recorded against the backdrop of the
significant global disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
pandemic. As nations across the world imposed travel restrictions to reduce the
spread of the disease, oil prices plummeted and international trade has
declined.
"The performance recorded in Q1 2020 represents a drop of
–0.23% point compared to Q1 2019 and –0.68% point compared to Q4 2019,
reflecting the earliest effects of the disruption, particularly on the non-oil
economy," the
statistics agency said in the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report for Q1
2020.
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The
1.87 per cent GDP growth is lower than both the 2.10 per cent reported in Q1
2019 and 2.55 per cent recorded in Q4 of last year. The NBS also reported that
the oil sector grew by 5.06 per cent in real terms in Q1 2020, representing a
6.51 percentage points increase when compared to Q1 2019. However, the oil
sector growth declined by 1.30 percentage points relative to Q4 2019 when the
sector recorded 6.36 per cent growth.
The
oil sector contributed 9.50 per cent of the total GDP in the quarter under
review, indicating an increase from the preceding quarter as well as the
corresponding period of last year. Average daily oil production in Q1 2020
stood at 2.07 million barrels per day (mbpd), up from the 1.90 mbpd average
production recorded in a similar quarter of 2019.
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The
non-oil sector, according to the report, contributed 90.50 per cent in Q1 2020.
This was less than its share of 90.78 per cent and 92.68 per cent recorded in
Q1 and Q4 of last year, respectively.
The
key performing areas of the non-oil sector in the review period included
information and communication, which grew at 9.99 per cent during the last
quarter; agriculture sector grew by 2.20 per cent; financial and insurance
services (20.79 per cent), and construction (1.69). In Q1 2020, the non-oil
sector recorded a growth rate of 1.55 per cent, slower than the 2.48 per cent
posted in Q1 2019. The trade sector remained in recession, recording a growth
rate of -2.82 per cent in Q1 2020, a much faster contraction than the -0.38 per
cent posted in the preceding quarter.
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According
to Bloomberg, Nigeria's economic
growth rate for the last quarter beat estimates of economists the media
organisation surveyed. The median estimate of three economists surveyed by
Bloomberg was 0.8 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
estimated that Nigeria's GDP for 2020 will contract by 3.4 per cent due to the
economic shocks resulting from the coronavirus pandemic.
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