Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
How
Nigeria navigates through the coronavirus storm will certainly influence its
economic outlook well beyond 2020.
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Over
the past few months, the COVID-19 menace has wreaked havoc across Africa’s
largest economy, digging its poisonous claws into major industries and sectors.
No prisoners were taken, as manufacturing, agriculture, services and oil fell
victim to the widespread disruptions. Although the country was able to expand
1.87% during the first quarter of 2020, the outlook for the rest of the year
remains depressing thanks to a combination of negative external and domestic
factors.
Major
institutions including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have expressed
concerns over Nigeria’s outlook. It was only yesterday that the IMF said that
economic growth will contract by 5.4% this year compared to the -3.2% estimate
in April.
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In the
past, Nigeria has experienced many trials ranging from severely depressed oil
prices, US-China trade uncertainty and slowing economic growth in China among
many other themes but COVID-19 is different. Africa’s largest economy is
dealing with a health crisis that presents lasting psychological consequences
on business confidence and consumer behaviour. The next few months may rough
and rocky, especially when factoring how oil-output curbs could deepen thanks
to recorded coronavirus cases in some offshore oil sites and remote locations.
With
revenue from crude and natural gas exports reportedly falling 31% from February
amid low oil prices, this places the Central Bank of Nigeria and government in
a tricky position. If foreign exchange reserves and government revenues decline
during the second half of 2020, there will be limited ammunition to defend
against COVID-19.
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Speaking
of ammunition, Nigeria has approved a whopping 2.3 trillion Naira economic
stimulus plan to help the disruptions caused by this health crisis. The World
Bank has also approved a $750 million loan to Nigeria’s power sector, something
that could support the private sector. It will be interesting to see whether
the combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy will be enough to guide
Nigeria through the current storm.
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