Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
In the
face economic instability and uncertainty, Nigeria eased lockdown restrictions
this month to jumpstart growth.
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The
opening up of more sectors of the economy is a welcome development and may even
boost consumption which accounts for a handsome chunk of gross domestic product
(GDP). However, a rising number of coronavirus cases may sabotage the
government’s efforts to reviving Africa’s largest economy.
It is
fair to say that the outlook for Nigeria remains clouded by the coronavirus
chaos with the economy expected to shrink by 3.2% according to the World Bank.
But the country is not alone as other emerging market and developed nations may
suffer a similar fate.
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Inflationary
pressures made an unwelcome return this week as the pandemic disrupted farming
activities, which hit food producers and consumers. With inflation jumping to
12.4% in May, questions are being raised on whether the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will have enough room to cut interest
rates further.
On the
bright side, foreign exchange reserves seem to be on a rise and could jump back
to towards the $40 billion level if Oil prices can push higher. Rising reserves
should provide enough ammunition for the CBN
to defend the Naira against external and domestic risks.
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Speaking
of Oil, the commodity is on route to concluding the week roughly 10% higher
despite the rising coronavirus cases
in Beijing, parts of the United States and Japan. OPEC has given Nigeria and three other countries till
Monday 22nd of June to submit a schedule of oil production cut compensation
plan. It will be interesting to see how the country plans to compensate for the
overproduction in April’s deal.
As the
week slowly comes to an end and the Naira
stabilizes around N453 to the Dollar on the parallel exchange, global sentiment
will remain dictated by coronavirus developments and growth concerns.
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