Chief Market Strategist at FXTM
Risk
assets are being sold off sharply early Monday following last week’s return of
volatility. After dropping below 24 in the first week of June, the CBOE’s VIX
almost doubled on Friday, reaching a high of 44 before settling at 36.
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The
broad shift in mood was sudden on Thursday with US stocks experiencing their
biggest declines since mid-March. The rally, driven by monetary and fiscal
stimulus, suddenly appeared on shaky grounds as if investors realised they can
no longer be detached much further from economic fundamentals. But once again,
the surge in Covid-19 cases was to
blame.
The
road ahead is likely to be bumpy. There is no clarity on economic growth
projections, earnings expectations and most importantly, the pandemic path. The
resurgence of coronavirus cases in Beijing, parts of the US and Japan as
economies further release their lockdowns is sparking fears of a second wave,
and without a vaccine in hand, the second wave could be more threatening than
the first.
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At the
time of writing, the Dow Jones
Industrial Futures Index has plunged more than 800 points, indicating sharp
losses for the first trading session of the week. The beneficiaries, as usual,
have been the US dollar and the Japanese Yen along with US Treasuries. It seems
investors are running for safety as the tranquility in markets has come to an
end.
Fear of missing out or
‘FOMO’ could
turn into regret aversion where investors prefer to stay out of markets, so it
will be interesting to monitor sentiment in the days and weeks ahead. Cyclical
sectors, especially Energy, Industrial and Financial stocks will be hit the
most as they were the latest drivers of the equity rally.
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Traders
will need to monitor the term ’second wave’ very closely as it may become the
key driver for asset classes.
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