Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
In a
move that caught many by surprise, the Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN) pulled the trigger on lower interest rates for the
first time since March 2019. The decision, which was in line with the strategy
adopted by many central banks may stimulate economic growth ahead of a
potential economic recession triggered by lower oil prices and the coronavirus
pandemic. Although Africa’s largest economy was able to expand 1.87% during the
first quarter of 2020, fears remain elevated over the economy descending into a
recession this year.
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On the
bright side, markets remain hopeful that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic
is over with economies reopening across the globe. While economic data is
expected to paint a gloomy picture over the coming months, there is a strong
sense of hope that stability will return by 2021. It now becomes a question of
whether the CBN and government exhausted all their tools to mitigate the negative
impacts of the coronavirus to economic growth and stability.
On the
data front, the manufacturing PMI
sank to 42.4 in May which was its steepest pace of contraction in manufacturing
activity since August 2016. Non-manufacturing plunged to 25.3 during the same
month, pointing to the sharpest monthly contraction in services since July
2014. Confidence over the economy may be shaken in the near term as economic
data paints a very gloomy picture. Investors will direct their attention
towards the latest trade balance figures on Wednesday and inflation data next
week.
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Outside
of Nigeria, there will be a strong focus on the possible OPEC meeting, European
Central Bank policy meeting and US jobs report on Friday. Given how Oil
accounts for a handsome chunk of Nigeria’s export earnings and government
revenues, the outcome of the OPEC meeting and potential impacts it will have on
Oil prices will be felt in Nigeria. Other key themes driving global sentiment
will revolve around US-China trade tensions, Brexit and lingering concerns over
slowing global growth.
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