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Brent
crude has managed to recover half of its losses from the March lows, while WTI
has gained 34%. However, both Benchmarks have still lost more than half their
value since the beginning of the year.
Many
observers have thought it would be too challenging to get Russia and Saudi
Arabia to sit round the same table any time soon, but collapsing Oil prices and
intervention from the US have made this possible.
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In
terms of demand, the US has seen a fall of 14.4 million barrels a day,
according to the US Energy Information Administration. India, the world’s
third-largest consumer, has seen a plunge in demand of 18% according to FGE,
but refineries are painting a more gloomy picture saying their demand tumbled
by more than two-thirds in early April. And while China’s economy is expected
to fire on all cylinders soon, it still won’t be enough to compensate for the
lost demand globally.
Interestingly,
Oil futures are trading higher but physical purchasers can buy at a much lower
price, with some grades in North America being sold at a price tag of less than
$10 a barrel. That reflects the current distress and glut in energy markets at
this stage with many wondering whether a Saudi – Russian deal will bring
stability back to the market.
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Given
the magnitude of the current economic crisis, there’s a high chance of a deal
being struck. Markets are pricing a 10 – 15 million barrels a day cut in oil
production. That could send prices a little higher in the short term, but
fundamentals will still rule further out and if demand doesn’t recover by the
end of April, then that supply-demand equation will again look terrible.
According to the latest estimates, global demand has fallen by nearly 25
million barrels a day and the awaited cut is still far from balancing the
equation.
To
have a more meaningful deal, the US needs to jump in, but given that all US
producers are private companies, it makes this mission very difficult. Another
source of stability could come from Friday’s G20 emergency energy minister’s
meeting. If more producers join the deal and large oil consumers contribute to
the demand side by adding to their strategic oil reserves, this should provide
a longer-term stability factor to prices.
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The
worst-case scenario, where OPEC and its previous allies fail to commit to
production cuts, would be disastrous for oil-producing economies and the energy
sector. This would see both benchmarks test a single-digit number.
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