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Even
if Mexico were to perform an about-turn and agree to lower its production by
the prescribed 400,000 b/d, the 10+ million b/d reduction in global supplies
won’t be enough to fully offset the huge drop in demand, which is estimated to
be more than 30 million b/d.
Price
action in the Oil markets indicates that hope is diminishing over the
collective ability of the major producing nations to trigger a meaningful
supply-side intervention over the near-term. The case for a forceful attempt to
rebalance global Oil markets remains as strong as ever, at a time when demand
has been left decimated by the coronavirus. Unless there are coordinated supply
cuts on a global scale, Oil prices will be left subject to demand-side woes
with declines likelier than gains in the interim and an inevitable drop to test
the recent 18-year lows.
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Markets
lackluster ahead of looming tests to risk appetite
The
upward momentum seen in US stocks, enjoying their best week since 1974, failed
to carry over into Asian markets as regional indexes are mixed amid subdued
market activity on Good Friday. The easing US Dollar is alleviating the recent
pressure on Asian currencies and Gold, with the latter climbing towards the
psychological level of $1700.
Global
investors are still weighing up signs of economic turmoil against the support
measures rolled out across major economies. News of the Fed’s latest round of
emergency aid worth $2.3 trillion, along with Europe’s proposed $590 billion
economic rescue package, may still tide over risk assets into the coming week.
However, the recent gains in US stocks are set to be tested when earnings
season kicks off on Tuesday. Dire warnings of Wall Street’s earnings outlook
could ultimately prove the unravelling of the stock market’s nascent bull run.
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The
staggering buildup in US jobless claims, now numbering 16.8 million in the past
three weeks, is a stark reminder to the markets that at least from an economic
perspective, things are set to get worse before they get better. The coming
week’s data releases of US retail sales, manufacturing and especially the
weekly jobless claims could hold significant sway over broader risk sentiment
amid despairing questions over the depth and breadth of the economic fallout
due to Covid-19
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